Friday, April 09, 2010

copypasta from an ars thread-post i just made...

I figured out that WP7 was DOA a few days ago... why?

Because Microsoft is throwing *everything* out, and blindly copying the *worst* things Apple did that completely remove what strengths Windows Mobile *did* have. No multitasking (because iPhone doesn't have it) and a locked App store (because Apple has it)

Combine that with breaking back-compat (so *not* Microsoft) and relying on their development flavor-of-the-month, and it's a 'me too' product - all the downsides of Apple but little to none of the magic.

If Microsoft had a clue, they would've put in Enterprise features and they would have much of RIM's marketshare, and would be able to maintain their current positioning. (RIM should be ok, at least once they get the Webkit browser... the 9700/OS5 is quite similar to Android in *some* ways... enough to keep the customer base from jumping off IMO.)

The other huge problem? The web browser is going to be garbage compared to Webkit - which because Apple based it on KDE's browser, has to share... leading to everyone else using it. WM6.5's IE only gets 5/100 on Acid3, and I doubt WP7's will be anywhere near 100.

(IMO Webkit might be the one of the most significant software packages of the 10's...)

As for Symbian - a friend of mine got a Nokia from AT&T free w/contract - disguised as a non-smartphone. If Nokia can keep lower end Symbians enough like series 40, they'll quietly keep selling 'em. And in the Webkit/HTML5 era, Symbian^3 should do just fine.

Eventually simpler apps will all be HTML5+Javascript (hence me actually *rooting* for Steve Jobs in his Flash war. *nobody* else could win it...) and everyone with a decent browser will have a usable smartphone. It'll just be easier to pick up Android or perhaps Symbian now that it's opened.

Microsoft, having too much pride to adopt Webkit, might miss out on the party for years.

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